1. The Great M&A Rebound Is a Megadeal Story (For Now)
At first glance, the M&A market looks strong again. In 2025, global deal value reached $3 trillion (BCG, Baker McKenzie). In the US alone, deals totaled $1.6 trillion (PwC).
But a deeper look shows a surprising pattern. The rebound is almost entirely driven by very large deals.
In the third quarter of 2025, the value of US M&A deals rose 56% from the prior quarter and reached a four-year high. At the same time, the total number of deals barely changed (Deloitte). While 2025 had the most megadeals, defined as $5 billion or more, since 2021, the number of middle-market deals fell to the lowest level in a decade (PwC).
This “tale of two markets” (Deloitte) is not just about money. It is also about complexity. Large buyers can better handle today’s heavy regulatory requirements. For mid-market companies, growth will look different. FP&A teams must focus on modeling organic growth, managing costs carefully, and clearly showing the company’s underlying value to attract fewer and more selective private equity buyers.
2. AI Isn’t Just an Efficiency Tool, It’s the New Dealmaker
CFOs strongly agree on the importance of AI. About 87% say AI will be extremely or very important to finance operations in 2026 (Deloitte). But AI is no longer limited to back-office tasks. It is now influencing how deals are evaluated and priced.
More than 20% of megadeals in 2025 had an AI focus (PwC). This shows that AI capabilities are now a core part of how companies are valued.
As Ramzi Ramsey of Blackstone Growth explained, companies seen as benefiting from AI often receive higher valuations and more deal interest. Companies where AI impact is unclear may receive no offers at all (PwC).
For Controllers and FP&A teams, this is a major shift. Evaluating AI readiness is no longer just an IT issue. It is now part of financial due diligence, risk analysis, and long-term value creation.
3. The New Talent Playbook: Automate Repetitive Tasks, Promote Internal People
AI’s growing importance is reshaping how finance teams think about talent.
Rather than replacing employees, leading CFOs are using AI to free people from repetitive work so they can focus on higher-value tasks.
About 50% of CFOs said digital transformation of finance is their top priority for 2026. Closely tied to that, 49% said their main talent goal is automating processes to allow employees to focus on more valuable work (Deloitte).
At the same time, CFOs are prioritizing internal development. When asked how they plan to manage employee costs, 49% said they plan to hire or promote from within (Deloitte).
This shows a shift away from simple cost cutting. Automation removes low-value tasks, and existing employees are trained and promoted to take on more strategic analysis and decision support.
4. Beyond the P&L: Customer Behavior Is the New X-Factor
CFOs are still focused on managing internal risks, but they are paying much more attention to what is happening outside the company.
When asked which non-economic factors will most affect performance in 2026, 48% of CFOs pointed to changes in customer behavior or demographics. This ranked just behind competitive pressure (Deloitte).
This change expands the role of finance. FP&A teams are expected to move beyond reporting past results. They now need to build models that connect marketing spending and demographic trends to customer lifetime value and profit. Instead of managing budgets by department, finance teams are guiding where the company should invest to drive growth.
5. From Roadblock to Blueprint: Regulation Is Now Deal Architecture
Regulation continues to be a major challenge. Antitrust enforcement, foreign investment rules, and geopolitical tensions all complicate deals (Baker McKenzie, BCG).
However, advanced finance leaders now see regulation as more than a risk. It is becoming a core part of deal design.
Baker McKenzie describes this shift as regulation moving from “deal risk to architecture.” For example, companies are redesigning supply chains around “friendshoring,” and rules like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are directly affecting valuations in certain industries.
For finance leaders involved in M&A, this means considering regulatory and political risks from the very beginning. Finance teams must build models that include geopolitical exposure and non-financial data like carbon impact. These new skills connect directly back to the talent strategy of training internal teams for higher-value work.
Conclusion: Your Team’s Pivot to a Growth Engine
The finance agenda for 2026 shows a clear move away from a defensive, cost-focused mindset toward a proactive, growth-driven role.
The five trends are deeply connected. AI is changing how value is measured. Automation is reshaping talent strategy. Finance teams are modeling customer behavior and using regulation as a design tool for deals.
As a result, the finance function itself is being rewritten.
The key question is no longer whether your team can report results accurately. It is whether your finance team has the integrated strategy needed to help the business win.
Sources
• 2026 M&A Trends Survey: A Tale of Two Markets, Deloitte
• CFOs Signal Crucial Role That Technology Will Play in 2026, Journal of Accountancy
• M&A Outlook 2026: Expectations Are High—Again, BCG
• M&A Reawakens to a More Complex 2026, Baker McKenzie
• Technology Transformation Emerges as a Top Priority for CFOs in 2026: Deloitte Q4 2025 CFO Signals Survey, Deloitte / PR Newswire
• The Year Ahead: North American CFOs Reveal Their Top 6 Expectations for 2026, Deloitte
• US Deals 2026 Outlook, PwC